Real Estate
Real Estate: Growth deceleration
08/05/2009
The activity of the real estate industry operates in a global context marked by a sharp deceleration.
First, according to forecasts of the High Commission of Planning, the value added of the construction sector grew during the third quarter of 2008 only by 9.4%, compared to last year, slightly lower than the previous semester (10.6%). This trend should continue in the 4th quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Then, this deceleration has clearly characterized the dynamics of the entire construction industry in 2008. The total credit from real estate reached 146 Mdhs against 104.97 Mdhs in 2007, an increase in deceleration of 36% compared to 2007, against 44% between 2006 and 2007. For individuals, the increase was 15% against 27% between 2006 and 2007. The share of outstanding loans from real estate as compared to the overall loans from the economy has increased from 19.5% in 2006 to 28 .6% in 2008, an increase of 9 points. Reduced to GDP, the stock rose from 11% in 2005 to 23% in 2008, over 12 pts in 3 years. Finally, market activity was down both overall (down from 13.4% - 13.5% for MADEX) and at the level relevant to the construction sector in general (BTP: less 9.7%; estate: 25.8% less).
By
CMC
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