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  Economy
The crisis is far from over
  08/06/2010
 
 
 
 
The crisis is far from over. Contrary to what the international financial institutions have projected, mainly towards the end of 2009, recovery will not take place in the foreseeable future.

The Greek crisis has created a new situation. Taking the world by a surprise, it has seriously shaken the foundations of the Euro area. It has also acutely tested solidarity between the different European courtiers.

Full of Hesitations, declarations, contradictions, speculations, etc., Europe has more than doubted itself all over this period.

For their part, private rating agencies, escaping any kind of institutional control, have played an extremely negative role in the exacerbation of this problem. They either reprimand or gratify states on the basis of questionable rating criteria.

They shake credit markets, causing both panic and Euphoria, which may eventually lead some countries to complete bankruptcy.

Finally, after a deficient and costly time management, Europe has succeeded in forging a stimulus plan mainly intended to reassure markets.

In fact, the Greek crisis has revealed the extent of the European foundation's weakness, and that it is the fear of contamination which determines countries' behavior, by imposing provisional solutions.

Europe has rediscovered the virtues of austerity measures. It has adopted two contradictory plans in a short time-lapse: Yesterday, a cast-iron stimulus plan; today, a severe austerity plan.

Is it a diagnostic mistake? Are all the radars broken down? Or has this crisis disoriented decision makers?

The severity of these austerity measures is justified by the necessity of maintaining European stability which imposes the dogma of a deficit not exceeding 3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In a fragile and uncertain context, such an option will play against growth. According to some estimates, reducing the deficit to 3% of the GDP will only result in zero or even negative growth.

The remedy does not reside in the trimming of public expenditure, through easy cuts. Experience has proved the inefficiency of such a measure.

Indeed, a new vision is needed: one that provides for the reorganization of states, the fair sharing of responsibilities, and the revision of the management mode, that is to say, a new state construction serving growth.

The current state construction model in Europe is outdated. The recent crisis has shown its limits. Europe has to go beyond good governance, the setting up of a better statistics system, and the creation of a European rating agency and a support fund.

In fact, a unique currency has its requirements. Its management is not purely technical. Rather, it has to be equipped with the necessary economic and political instruments.

 
  By CMC
 
   
 
   
 
 
     
     
 
 
     
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