After the Ministry of Finance and the High Commission for Planning, it is the turn of Centre Marocain de Conjoncture to have its say. The diagnosis is clear: the crisis will continue in Morocco, and may even worsen, in 2010 with a growth rate not exceeding 2.8%, against 4.9% in 2009.

These forecasts are revised down from what was announced a few months ago, mainly because of a change in some growth factors.

The first factor is the weakening of foreign demand, especially from Morocco's main partners, namely France and Spain, as a result of the austerity measures that will be taken in most countries in the euro area as of this year.

These measures will be takes after expensive stimulus plans implemented between 2008 and 2009, which have saved the economy from bankruptcy. But at the same time they increased government deficits, pushing Greece to near collapse. Consequently, the average growth rate of European economies should not exceed 0.8%, which will inevitably depress Moroccan exports.

The second factor is the decline in agricultural output after the record crop of 2009. Today, the official figures of the Agriculture Ministry put forward a production of around 80 million quintals, a figure much lower than 2009 levels.

The third and final factor of importance is the impact of the floods that hit the country last winter on the evolution of GDP. A study of the Centre Marocain de Conjoncture (CMC) to assess the impact of these floods on humans, nature and economic activity showed that the loss is estimated at 0.7% of GDP. The simulation took into account the significant deterioration in productive infrastructures and loss of production and value added in the sectors affected.

Then, if we scrutinize growth profile in detail, a number of underlying trends need to be outline. Firstly, it is important to note the disparities between different economic sectors. Indeed, apart from agriculture, which has registered a decline of around 7.7%, the other sectors, including industry and services, are expected to grow faster than in 2009. In fact, the survey suggested a significant recovery in the manufacturing industries, except textile, cars and food processing.

Also, the growth rate of the industrial value added should regain its pre-crisis trend and would stand at around 3.5%. Concerning the mining sector, it would see, a significant expansion, thanks to the excellent growth of phosphates exports. Its value added should end the year with a growth rate of about 5.2%.

Another feature of this growth sectoral configuration of would be the relative revival of the construction industry and public works, owing to the good performance of social housing and the works scheduled as part of the country's large-scale projects.

For other trends, it can be maintained that the market services sector - telecommunications, tourism, etc. - is expected to gain a fairly sustained growth momentum in 2010. In contrast, private consumption, eroded by a decline in farming causing a fall in rural consumption and a rise of unemployment, could show less vitality. Public investment, for its part, is projected to keep driving economic growth in Morocco. And Inflation would not exceed 2.5% for the year 2010.

Finally, the two trends that may have a negative impact on growth profile should be monitored, namely continued deterioration in trade deficit and rising unemployment which could reach 11.5% at the end year.

Overall, it is important to place 2010 growth figures in a cyclical context brought about by the global economic crisis and the decline of agriculture. Under these conditions, the moderately satisfactory performance of the Moroccan economy may be considered a sign of economic fabric strength and positive reactivity for most economic sectors.